Friday, June 10, 2011

Shallow capital mkt stymies higher growth

A dialogue on "state of the economy and challenges ahead" was held recently at BRAC Business School in the city.

The welcome note was presented by Mr. Mamun Rashid, Professor and Director, BRAC Business School and the session was chaired by Professor Syed M. Hashemi, Director BRAC Development Institute.

The keynote presentation was made by Mr. Alamgir Morshed, head of global markets, Standard Chartered Bank and an adjunct faculty at BRAC Business School. The distinguished guests of the session were Dr. Mirza Azizul Islam, Former adviser, ministry of finance and planning, Government of People's Republic of Bangladesh, Dr. Zahid Hussain, Senior Economist, The World Bank, Dr. Binayak Sen, Research Director, BIDS and other discussants were Ms. Parveen Mahmud, President ICAB, Mr. Adeeb Khan, Partner Rahman Rahman Huq, Mr. Jalal Ahmed, Vice Chairman, EPB and Shameem Raihanuddin, Management Consultant.

Mr. Alamgir Morshed talked about the steady GDP growth as well as macroeconomics and policy stability of the country during his presentation. Among the economic challenges- Mr. Morshed mentioned low FDI, supply constrain, shallow capital market, narrow revenue are creating barriers to higher economic growth. Managing inflation, food security; growth of employment, image and infrastructural development were mentioned as the key success factors of the economy in his speech.

During the panel discussion Dr. Islam expressed different opinion regarding the GDP growth of 6.7% in current fiscal year. However, Dr. Binayak Sen, stated this growth of 6.7% is expected. Dr. Islam also mentioned that there is miscalculation in the growth rate of GDP provided by BBS. Although in recent years the ratio on investment in GDP has been the same, he raised questions on the growth of production. He added that the statistics provided by BBS cannot be relied upon.

Dr. Islam again stated that Government investment has declined this year and annual development program has been reduced in size. Compared to high export rate, tendency to import is still higher. Moreover foreign remittance has declined which led to decrease in consumer demand. Hence he raised questions regarding the growth rate of 6.7% in such situation. On the other hand, Dr. Sen stated that this rate is rational due to increase in investment and female labor force participation.

Along with Mr. Islam, he raised observations on the data of CPD provided by BBS. He added that there has been large investment in the country in past few years and there has been remarkable investment in the current year. All these led to higher growth rate, stated Dr. Sen. However he expressed that this growth is not stable. He also mentioned that strong infrastructure and proper governance which are required- do not exist in the country.

Among the other discussants, Mr. Zahid Hussain, Senior Economist, The World Bank said that "we have good strategy but we do not implement." He also mentioned that pressures are emerging on foreign exchange reserve. There has to be speed up in public infrastructure, electricity and the growth should come with employment generation, he also added.

Ms. Parveen Mahmud, President ICAB stated that food security is a challenge at the moment and there should be cold storage in the Northern areas of the country. She suggested that quality of education is a must and that knowledge is not disseminating in the field.

Adeeb Khan, Partner Rahman Rahman Huq talked about the legal protection of the country: there are barriers to entry, barriers to operate and obstacles to exit- hence bottlenecks at all levels. In addition he mentioned that there is severe harassment on honest tax payers.

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